space. we reaffirmed that our article 5 commitment is sacred and an attack on one is an attack on all, and we will defend every inch of nato territory, every inch of nato territory for our part, the united states is doing exactly what i said we would do if putin invaded -- enhanced our force posture in europe we'll station more ships in spain. we're stationing more air defense in italy and germany, more f-35s in the united kingdom, and to strengthen our eastern flank, new permanent headquarters for the army 5th corps in poland. in addition, an additional brigade combat team position in romania. an additional rotational deployments in the baltic countries. things are changing to adapt to the world as we have it today. and all this is against the

backdrop of our response to nato -- to russia's aggression and to help ukraine defend itself the united states is rallying the world to stand with ukraine. allies and partners around the globe are making significant contributions. secretary austin just brought together more than 50 countries, more than 50 countries, pledging new commitments. and this is a global effort to support ukraine. nearly 140,000 anti-tank systems, more than 600 tanks, nearly 500 artillery systems, more than 600,000 rounds of artillery ammunition, as well as advanced multiple launch rocket systems, anti-ship systems, and air defense systems. and again, the united states is leading the way. we provided ukraine with nearly $7 billion in security assistance since i took office the next few days, we intend to announce more than 800 million more, including new advanced air

defense systems for ukraine, more artillery and ammunition, counterbattery radar, additional ammunition for the rocket system we've already given ukraine and more coming from other countries as well. we've also welcomed the first time our partners in the indo-pacific to participate in the nato summit. as i indicated to putin, his action would cause worldwide response bringing together democratic allies and partners from the atlantic and the pacific to focus on the challenges that matter to our future and to defend the rules-based order against the challenges including from china in the g-7 in germany, we also launched what started off to be the build back better notion but it's more akin to the partnership for global infrastructure and investment, to offer developing and middle-income countries better options to meet their urgent

infrastructure needs, because when the united states and the g-7 countries put skin in the game, it helps bring millions of dollars up to possible a trillion dollars of private sector money off the sidelines $600 billion in the next few years. unlike china, these projects will be done transparently and with very high standards for example, u.s. government just facilitated a new partnership between two american firms and the government of angola to invest $2 billion building a significant solar project in angola. it's a partnership to help angola meet its climate goals and energy needs while creating new markets for american technologies and good jobs excuse me. in angola. as you heard me say before, when i think climate, i think jobs. and the g-7 also said we've worked together to take on china's abusive and --

>> the president speaking at the nato summit in madrid, spain, talk about nato unity, saying the u.s. intends to announce some additional weapons aid to ukraine. we'll continue to monitor the speech and highlights when he's done good thursday morning. welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer david faber has the morning off. we get to put to bed the first half of the year since 1970. futures are red despite another cooler than expected gdp the 2-year is back to 2.95, jim. we had german cpi this week, now this are you -- can we definitively say peak inflation is here >> i think yes but i also think that when you listen to what the central banker said yesterday, he still speaks in terms of ultra urgency, which then gets everyone out of worrying about recession.

paychex, terrific ceo. there's a 30-page conference call and it's all great, great, great, great, then there's one line which of course continues the recession. it was like the wolves, the wolf pack went against them we were talking about the fact everything was going well but he felt he had to say that. that was the tenor and now people are cutting their price targets. i think that's what's consumed people, that in the end, book ended yesterday, bed, bath & beyond in rest race, and we left here sullen and gloomy >> well, i mean, it's funny because rh was one of the initial earnings calls that said look out ahead and now the second guide lower in the course of a month, jim -- >> didn't buy stock. gary freedman, just released saying things are bad. when he first started, he was the first to say -- talk about

mortgage rates doubling, but also first to say that all these things, like ukraine are changing, like, the stock market so gary's got the zeitgeist. he did not come on people have different things to do he's come on multiple times. and the emphasis is kind of how a lot of people feel right now he was ahead of us, which is that stocks aren't going up, bonds not that great a deal, the future is worst than the past. everybody, if it's a stock, therefore it goes down i mean, you know, i'm doing research from stocks what am i doing? the stock goes down. why am i bothering to do research that's where we are. that typically is has actually led to a better moment, but only because everyone's got -- we're still not there yet. that crescendo

>> you think there's some people who are not negative enough. >> exactly we need every strategist to embrace mike wilson. like, you know -- >> 3,400 >> yes mr. wilson mr. wilson and by the way, there are people who say, listen, we don't go to 3,900 today, every single price target that i see is so far away from where a stock is, its incredible i'm doing work today what happens if bed bath can't pay its leases well, who gets hurt? i mean, i haven't done that kind of work since the great recession. it's -- this is just a not great time. >> right. >> not great time. >> right as for -- you're right about some leftover positivity, wells is defending rh, cowan's target remain 3s 00 their operating margin guidance, jim, 21.5, at the midpoint, they

were in the mid-20s, 24. >> this is a tremendous place to shop all the way back, big expansion plans for this year. i'd like to know whether they feel like they have to pull some back friedman is an amazing operate tomorrow people say sell williams sonoma. they're very different i think that gary called it first. i think retail's terrible. i look at something like ckohl's and say wasn't there supposed to be a deal? i don't see a deal macy's anything in the mall is just a disaster and then people say, listen, because everyone is traveling, if that's the case, why is american express down under 140? i think the answer is that everybody's confused you want to take a trip and then you hear phil lebeau say your

plane is canceled. if i was going on a trip, i would book five different airlines the biggest joke of all, the punch line, is that jetblue wants to buy spirit when the government's trying to block a deal between two defense contractors, and they still haven't even started the trial of simon shuster >> mm-hmm. >> so the government doesn't want any mergers >> we have a little more time on save as they delay the vote now to july 8th. >> how do you like that? >> because of that, you're seeing it up a little bit. is your view the second half will be as bad as the first? >> no. this is 1970 and 1907 wa-- 1970 was a terribe time not for me i was 12 but the idea if it's a stock it goes down has to end because i think china's coming back. and i think the zero covid is

coming back. so you've got -- the fed can't just, you know, tighten forever. you've got china getting better. you do have russo and ukraine. that's okay. one out of three being bad, we'll do well. if china comes back, look at nike and say why did i sell it - >> we'll watch shanghai disney opening. >> absolutely. i'm trying to get pictures i got some great pictures courtesy of howard schulz. >> starbucks yesterday >> the reserves. indoor dining, and it was incredibly strong, so what's -- on china, the pictures itch were just -- looked like the old days so i think shanghai disney is going to be a very telling moment for china so we also tend to be so gloomy we forget -- is that the magic -- is that the magic

kingdom there? shanghai doesn't look like a lot of people there we go. there we go. we're acting -- if you told me three weeks ago that shanghai disney would be open, i'd say you're crazy >> yep >> and there it is open. >> you mengtioned ukraine snake island, they have retreated. they're trying to frame it as gesture of good will, but not everybody believes that. >> if you listened to the president, 1%, but it's interesting, we're sending fewer rounds, using the kaesong against us in the vietnam war. we're still not committed in the way that -- when you said 500 tanks, i mean, you need -- not that -- i think you have to send more long-range military because what happens is that they're out of our drone reach and we need to see more javelin orders to lockheed martin and raytheon because you and i have

both seen the unclassified film of what we can do to their hardware, which is really -- it's almost a video game it's so scary. >> right again, second-half playbook, china recovery to some extent. >> yeah. and then everybody's estimates will finally -- what we have to get away from is price target cut, price target cut. this morning the only price targets that were up were fedex. everything else was price target cut. they're so far away. now we're starting to get to the reets in the way we didn't get to them during covid you're seeing simon properties, a great operator, being downgraded today then of course oil, no one want thasz either >> yeah. oil is on pace for actually the first lose moog since november >> yes yes. >> a lot of discussion about these russian oil price caps bank of america says never will work unless you get china and india online

russian exports are the highest since at least 2015. >> the ruble is strong nothing is -- all the sanctions seem to me to be not equal to how much the russians are taking in with oil because india and china don't care india is a democracy you would think they react a little more in sync with the west, but they're not. kind of a coal and oil base. >> that said, though, jim, wholesale gas 72 cents off the high going back to mid-may. i don't know if you saw citi's wti forecast for q4 for next year, 75 >> we had carl garner, my favorite commodity person, saying 50 to 75 -- goes to 50 and oil always comes back. my problem with that is if china comes back online, really, there will be a floor.

and i don't believe that the president can continue to -- the strategic petroleum reserve, like 365 days left in that thing. i thought it was meant for more than just this >> the point is we're not talking 150 anymore. >> no. this is what i've been saying, carl, is if you had told me that we would be going down, i mean, we're stuck with this mind-set of a month and a half ago, which is that inflation is out of control and china is never going to reopen. now we have inflation peaking. china's reopening, and we're even more negative that doesn't make sense to me. so i am saying -- i said last night, look, if a company just reported a great quarter, general mills, and the stock -- they say buy it. general mills had an amazing quarter. by the way, general mills said the supply chain is getting much, much better. supply chain getting better. >> yep >> that's another one. fedex is talking about things being better i think things are better than what people are saying

>> so when jpmorgan comes out and says market expects the world to fall apart, if that does not happen, s&p can recover its losses at the end of the year, is that too optimistic >> no. i just don't think that -- i mean, they're all still laboring under the hurricane thesis you know, we had a guy in philadelphia, weatherman, retired, hurricane suachwartz. hurricane sam bank freedman. jamie dimon has to call and say i never meant the hurricane. the week before i said it was sunny. let's go back to something, maybe cloudy it's not that bad. everyone is so negative. it's not that bad. >> we only have a few more weeks until we'll hear from jamie one way or the other >> i was with an alcohol guy last night and he said how are you taking it? i'm thinking how am i taking it?

something with my health what does he mean? the phillies maybe the phillies he goes the market i said the market is horrible. yeah, that's what i think, it's horrible away from us, the public has decided that this is a lose-lose proposition, the stock market. and a lot of people like the 3-year >> the 3-year -- >> treasury. >> yeah. at this point, why not >> we have major companies that everybody likes that just feel like they just roll over every single day very visible companies really visible companies and then we look at pfizer they got a really big deal, right? it was a much bigger increase. >> $3 billion, right >> and they're getting much more per, 27% higher. i was thinking, geez, maybe i should recommend something positive about pfizer.

and i said, it's a stock i don't want to be affiliated. i mean, the news is so good, pfizer, and i'm just trying to figure out how much it will be down, maybe a little less than others i wish i were not being facetious. that pfizer deal was a sweetheart deal from the government that stock should be up. >> we'll get more on this $3.2 billion supply agreement along with their call to get full approval for paxlovid going into the fall >> of course everyone said dr. fauci used it. i don't have any -- it have tylenol. >> bitcoin sinks below 19k earlier this mornings, on pace for the worst month pretty much ever in the meantime, futures on this final day of the month, the quarter, and the half. 'rba ia nute ofessional pit crew. go, go, go. sorry. nope. okay. fresh donuts - hot coffee!

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walgreens under pressure in the premash, down almost 4%, as demand for covid vaccines fade and the company does not raise its forecast for the year, jim thoughts about this? >> well, it's been a very, very tough time for them versus cvs, hanging tough at 93. i just think that in the end walgreens was just -- decided not to sell -- i don't want to

say they're in disarray because that would say they didn't have a good balance sheet they do. i just can't think of a reason to own it other than dich dend and that's not enough anymore. you need to be protected by a 6% dividend to save yourself in this market. i keep hoping for someone to talk about steely, about how bad their pilferage is, because i think in the end we all have stories, they're all anecdotal, but i know from speaking to some big box retailers that anecdotals empirical, there's real problems with theft to the point where earnings are being hurt i want to know >> it's always been a problem at retail, jim. it's just the ability to organize it and resell thanks to various online platforms, right. >> i think some of the big boxers would tell you that it is organized crime. like if you look at certain power tools that are made by

certain companies, you'll see them being sold by other entities, and those other entities don't really exist. i think that we all have to be conscious that there is a bill in congress to try to get that to stop, but right now, i mean, it's a free fire zone. we all know -- i've talked to some of the meat department stores about it, and i'm not saying i want to talk about it, i'm saying if it keeps up with where it's under a thousand, it's a misdemeanor, it's a problem. i want to do a gap in san francisco. i tried on a sweater, the guy next to me tried on a sweater. i chose to pay and he didn't >> you like this supply deal with pfizer. >> a 27% increase and more to come, i think pfizer is doing incredibly well, and they bought this biohaven, which people don't realize is going to be the migraine drug. i think it's a $5 billion drug, and i'm the spokesperson for the

american migraine foundation no one's talking about it. no one seems to understand it. i popped one this morning. i woke up, i said, oh, migraine, put it in my mouth, 15 minutes later knox migraine. i have asked a lot of ceos about it everyone knows someone who has a migraine everyone knows this thing. when pfizer closes on this, you'll hear about a drug where you think there's barometric pressure, the government allows you to pop one it dissolves in your mouth i take a shot every month. by pfizer -- it will actually help close the cliff that they were facing. and so will this deal with the government >> albert boarurla, tweets about this, in vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals at high risk.

>> he is so good i don't understand why people don't realize -- my charitable trust, j&j is crushing it. you can't own nothing but drug stocks, but everyone who's thinking about meeting a drug stock, this pfizer deal today is extraordinarily good so i really like it very much. >> last bit of news we got was from universal health, a warning on the quarter, because not enough covid patients. >> that is -- humana beat the number because they didn't have so many covid patients humana is the winner that game >> good for the world but obviously tough for the hospitals. >> humana told me the number of days flu versus covid, flu is now worse than covid i know anyone who's lost -- i'm not trying to minimize, but omicron is just not as bad

>> a different world than we were a year or two ago we'll get cramer's "mad dash" on the opening bell this thursday morning. don't go away.

cramer's "mad dash." disney plus, weaker consumer, but the company's content is underearning and undervalued, but they've cut their price target from 170 to 125.

all you read about is the cut and the price target >> went swingberg, his bull case is up 75 dealing with different macronarratives. >> they just launched their fifth ship if you listen to yesterday, carnival, the downgrades, one was horrendous, you might be thinking i don't know if i want to -- maybe i have to take my deposit back so when you talk to disney people, they say you know if you're going to sell disney you'll get that deposit back if you change your mind apparently, they're upgrading who they have on it. i know it's not just older characters i was talking to someone at disney yesterday, and she said why don't you go with us instead

of norwegian cruise? norwegian cruise has katy perry. >> now we know why >> i'm going to convince my wife to take a disney cruise. she said it was over her dead body i said, listen, how about katy perry, she goes, when are we going? >> it is the worst dow stock of the year, disney >> is it >> yeah. and it's trading, jim, basically in the area where it did when it shut all the parks from covid. >> i think what they need to do, they'll have the balance sheet fixed. it took a long time. they way overpaid. they need to go back to a dividend my trust on the way down, an iconic franchise, don't have a good basis on it cannot believe where it is telling people in the club this is probably the cheapest stock that we own. >> disney. >> yes because, you know, we have to remember, they did pay too much for something a couple years ago, but now you're getting disney -- it's -- disney plus

can no longer hurt them because the stock is so far below where they started so i like disney >> we'll find out if shanghai disney, at least directionally, can -- >> shanghai disney is purely additive >> opening bell, final one of the quarter. the cnbc real time exchange, big board, deutsch celebrating pride month, and at the nasdaq, sk growth opportunities celebrating its recent ipo as the opening tick takes us back to 37 >> that's where the strategists are saying we could really break down it's wilson's game i have to hand it to that guy. he came on many times when things were flying he said don't believe it's going to go down when the fed raises and i've never made fun of him, but i told you, he deserves all our respect. and he is a very cogent figure all i hope is he is a bull -- i

mean as -- i want people to make money -- that he doesn't say next stop, this. >> sure. >> because 37 people say has to hold >> baca, we revisited 30k a couple weeks ago, 700-point cushion today. pimco today, jim, u.s. recession now more likely than not >> yeah. >> i wonder if you think they pause in september do you think we get one in july and then they wait >> i think if they do 75 they have to wait because the yield curve is showing that they're already too aggressive >> the market is pricing in a half basis point or a half point -- >> then cut. >> the second hatch of next year >> up and then down. i think you have to see -- i want to know what people are doing with this, because like sell all the bonds in the world. i'm depressed. >> i don't think you need to be.

i don't think you need to be depressed. >> i am. i'm in a kind of a xanax thing going on >> yeah? >> i spoke with jensen wong yesterday. nvidia one of the greatest of all times. they're doing this fantastic deal i spoke to the ceo of siemens, digital twib, the beginning of large factory orders i got off the phone and i said i don't care about the stock, the company has switched from being a gaming company to being the most powerful internet of thing artificial intelligence company out there. both mark zuckerberg respects from the point of view of the metaverse and the omni verse's ziemens and nobody cares at 300, jim, they lost their shirt. jensen yesterday was so optimistic, and i didn't even

want to say how about the stock because i think what he's doing with his digital twin, you're literally making a digital twin of a factory and figuring out how to make the factory better it's so brilliant, and, carl, no one cares what jensen is doing lisa su -- >> we have an upgrade of amd today. >> are you kidding me? i was with lisa when i was in san francisco and she just reiterated the numbers and it was like they cut numbers. she reiterated the numbers, cut numbers. i mean, come on, everybody >> she did bring pcs in a touch but -- >> yes, but they're going to be less than 10% because of the buy of -- you know they made a deal. ism i feel like going to politics that's how i feel. >> those two names the biggest victims this week. the spt wrapping up in nato and

has additional headlines >> president biden just wrapping up about 20 minute offense questions here in madrid he heard from mostly economic journalists asking about inflation, about the price of gas at the pump, about voter dissatisfaction in the united states and his forthcoming trip to saudi arabia and the potential sale of lockheed f-16s to turkey. he said that -- he acknowledges that inflation is hurting americans but he says that it's higher in most other countries and it is not a problem unique to america when asked what the g-7 meant by supporting ukraine for a war for how long it takes, how long americans should be forced to pay a pree yum, he said as long as it takes ukraine to defeat the russians he said that two different times and was vehement in that view. he was asked about his visit to

saudi arabia and whether he would be making a specific request to the kingdom to be increasing its oil output. he said he would not be making one just to the kingdom, that gulf states will be meeting together and he hopes they will all draw the conclusion that it is in their as best as to put more oil on the world market f-16s, he asked if there was a quid pro quo, in negotiations with president erdogan, whether president erdogan promised to approver the accession bids of finland and sweden to nato, only if the united states agreed to sell those fighter jets. president biden said there was no quid pro quo but does support the sale and modernization of turkey's f-16s he said congress must approve that, but he believes it will get congressional approval carl and jim >> appreciate that kayla in madrid now. we are going to watch rh as a tell for today's action. it relates to luxury housing,

something charlie sharp talked about. >> the ceo of wells fargo. he talked about how great business is. mortgages were bad in the first quarter, so no surprise, but charlie, who does not do interviews >> the wells fargo chief >> we're seeing a huge decline in terms of mortgage applications we recently said publicly that our mortgage revenues will be down 50% from the first quarter to the second quarter, of which part of it is price but part of it is just the decrease in applications real estate values, you know, moderating in the long term are a good thing >> for inflation >> i think for -- absolutely for inflation because it's part of it in terms of just increased rent payments and mortgage payments because it all filters through. but, again, it will be messy going through it >> i thought he was terrific now, charlie does not -- doesn't do interviews.

he's being very matter of fact, basically saying, look, as rates go up, maybe an inventory buildup. this is what you said was so smart, carl, which is they'll raise rates and then in september -- because inventory is building throughout the system but rh, bed bath, they don't know what to do with the sl inventory, housing inventory, but not layoffs. housing. now the president -- i'm sorry, the fed wants demand to be tamped, which would mean that job growth has to be tamped. the president doesn't buy into that we obviously need more people in the country. it's a supply demand issue i was talking to trul owe yesterday. i said if we had more people coming in we wouldn't be worried. >> good luck >> we're not going to. big immigration, the economy does well. but it is an inventory mild

recession, not a layoff big recession. so therefore, i mean, i do get a little down when i see the market going down as if it's going to be a doozy. >> sure. >> it's not going to be a doozy. >> that said, journal's got a piece today about potential layoffs at tencent and bike dance. we've talked about novartis and tesla and substack and niantic labs >> look, at tesla, believe me, ford and gm will take anybody they can get from those places i don't know about bytedance all i know is that mark zuckerberg reels, mark my word, reels in two quarter lbs ahead of tiktok, ahead >> you've long said that meta was a second-half story. >> oh, my, is it ever. >> zuckerberg, when you speak to him, i don't think he sleeps, which i like baukz because i can talk to him any hour of the day. in the morning he guilties up and goes, okay, picking the brain, i'm going to defeat

tiktok in the evening he's created this metaverse -- people have to go to the metaverse it's so much better than re reality. i'm happy in the metaverse >> well, not if stephen ross gets his way did you hear what he said about work from home if a recession happens, employees who have been taking it easy working from home are going to have to do what it takes to keep their jock. >> -- their job. >> he may be right warner brothers saying the price target raise, there are places that will hire you i don't think it's going to be so easy for the cavalier younger people to say -- i know a younger person who shald the other day someone told me itch to go to work. i said i have elderly parents. i don't have to work because if i get covid i'll give it to the elderly parents. that excuse is a great h.r. excuse that will never go away until we're absolutely finished with this. you're not going to be able to

fire someone who says i have elderly parents. >> even with what serious hospitalization rates and death rates have done? >> i think everybody is afraid they don't want to be the person that fires somebody and their parents get it from them >> then don't go to the movies or don't fly or go on vacation yeah, it's that dissonance that is confusing to a lot -- jim, let's do bitcoin really quick. as we said erler, fell below 19k. gray scale fighting back against the sec for the rejection of this spot bitcoin etf. >> to me, bitcoin has become the leader -- it's now the tail wagging the dog. remember it's supposed to be refuge now it's just a question of whether your bitcoin is in a place where if you sell it you're get your money back that's it. >> you know, sam bankman-fried, we all make a joke he's jpmorgan he's not he's not rockefeller either. so let's -- i love his

guarantee, but it's not like the federal reserve. i think when stocks when they're done today, i would suggest people buy some stocks at the end of the day because i think that people -- money managers want to show that they didn't have anything to do with this quarter. oh, there he is! >> tomorrow night. tomorrow night >> he'd walk a mile for a camera, that fella >> our frank holland will talk to him took a look at celsius, didn't like what he saw >> celsius seemed a bit undercapitalized >> yeah. >> took a look at robinhood. has he called jamie dimon? >> sam >> jpmorgan. >> a good question for frank to ask. >> don't you think the arrogance of this fella -- hey, you know what, i had two guys on, the pinterest guys on last night >> yes

>> bill ready and ben silberman. ben's great and i felt bad for him, jim, here a billionaire, whatever, but pinterest is a question with 400 million users and the stock goes down all the time pinterest is a valuable company. i think they'll be able the figure out how to monetize -- you can't monetize anything. you can't buy things on pinterest. look at that >> you just talked about the global inventory glutz >> yes >> people feel they have enough stuff for now. >> they don't want to travel they don't want to shop. what are they doing? what are they doing? watching the boys? is everyone watching "the boys"? >> the old man >> maybe they've -- maybe they're reading books. that's why the justice department is blocking that simon shuster deal please people are just standing around. maybe that's what they're doing. people are standing around >> we'll see what happens what's

happening to the excess savings and certainly personal spending, which came in like 0.2 -- >> that's the problem. not doing anything. >> real spending was negative, 0.4. we'll talk about that with nec director brian deese on this morning's inflation and spending data in the meantime, back to 37-5 on the s&p. treasuries we said earlier, a bit of a rally, especially at the front end. you have the 2-year below 3.00 for the first time since early june we'll be right back.

welcome back to "squawk on the street." rick santelli with some of the last breaking news of the quarter, the half year, and of course of the month in the form of june read on chicago pmi expected to be up at 58. 50, of course, the expansion/contraction line turns out it comes in light at 56.0 this is the lightest level since august of 2020 when it was at

50.9 we see interest rates down, many calling for peak inflation, but maybe that's not the issue prices are still very high even though they may have stopped going higher "squawk on the street" will return after this break. to adapt in a fast changing world, you could hire a professional pit crew. go, go, go. sorry. nope. okay. fresh donuts - hot coffee! they deliver real time data and business forecasts when you need it. i think it was fine how it was. (air tool sound) to help you stay ahead of the curve... or you could use workday. the finance, hr and planning system that helps cfos make better decisions faster. on the other hand, we had a great fourth quarter. for a accelerate your decision-making world. workday. for a changing world.

getting back to these inflation numbers today, core personal expenditure prices jumped 4-7 from a year ago, close to levels back in the early 1980s but down 50 basis points from the peak joining usreaction from the white house is the national economic council director brian deese welcome back good to have you good. >> good to be here, carl. >> we started our show with jim stalking about inflation break-evens, four-month low, market pricing in cuts next year, inventory accelerations. are you ready to call a peak inflation? >> well, what i will say is we saw some moderation on core pce, compared to that is important mott raise

but the headline is energy prices half the reading was energy related, and those issues are challenging and connected to what the president was just talking about at nato. we are looking closely at this data, as i know the federal reserve will be, and certainly there's some moderation that we're seeing if energy is so much of a focus, what kind of deliverables do we expect to be getting from the trip to the middle east. >> with the announcement the president made earlier this week to explore a price cap on russian oil, which is an important step in the process of training the economic pain that's necessary, as the to hold president putin accountable, but train it on the russian economy, not on the global economy. as you'll know, at effectuating

a -- the goal is not to constrict supply, but instead to reduce the revenue that putin is able to accumulate we have a lot of work to do and engagement with the priority sector, and going forward were focused on working with the domestic industry to get production up. 12 million barrels a day, close to historic levels, but the companies have told us they intend to increase production, and we are trying to work pragmatically with them as well. >> i know you care passionately about what the american public has -- the hiding fees making the bananas cost more, i think provide enough information for you to go to mr. cantor at the antitrust department of the

justice department to go after the collusion among the limited number of carriers can you please tell us where you are on the idea that perhaps there's genuine collusion among these carriers that's really hurting the american people? >> i'm not going to speak to any specific enforcement action other than recognizing the issue you're raising is certainly on our radar screen more generally we have been focused on anywhere in the economy where you see a concentration, and extraordinary unusual price increase to say make sure our enforcement agencies are taking a close look as you know, one of the areas we have been focused on is ocean shipping, where you have nine foreign carriers, three alliances, and 1,000% increase the president identified that issue. that took legislation, which he signed last week, which i think will start to make a difference,

but we are very active in trying to identify if we see any of those areas. it goes back to the start of your question. food and energy we totally understand, hit americans right in their pocketbook. they also create uncertainty for american consumers we're focused on that, but also on other practical places, where we can bring prices down >> well, to me, one of the pocketbook issues is the opportunity to create an amazing number of jobs in the ohio area. is it possible light now for you to tell me which chips act will indeed past? i've been with secretary raid, and i have mortgage on the air today. can we get that bill through congress >> look, i am incredibly hopeful that we can do that, because there's every reason to do so. every economic reason. as you say, it's much more than

the $52 billion. it's about the follow-on investment intel alone has said they plan to invest $100 billion in domestic jobs, domestic innovation it's also important we, the united states, own the most innovative part of the semiconduct ore value chain. that's not true today. we are losing that race, so it makes economy sense. it also makes national skufrt sense as well. you all know the national security stakes associated with not becoming overly reliant on individual minneapolis manufacturers or part in the world. if there's sense and we can bring common sense, we will get the bill to the president's desk, and we said let's resolve our differences, get the bill down here so we can getting that positive flywheel going.

what was the white house reaction to -- it's been called a hot mi dr. moment from macron, suggesting that maybe the saudis don't have the capacity to boost products as much as we thought. >> there's a lot of analysis out there around spare capacity. certainly we're monitoring that, we're assessing that it's not surprising that's a topic of conversation. as we've talked about before, this is about global supply, and so that's what the price cap was about. that is what our engagement across the world is about and what our engagement with the domestic industry is about as well anywhere where we have an opportunity to increase supply, we also need to keep working on the refined product issue here in the u.s we made progress on that last week, constructive meeting with the industry more work to do there as well. >> brian, always good to have

you. we appreciate it so much. >> thank you. brian deese from the white house. >> i had gary cohn talking about this piece of legislation out there, and bill newlands, a recent study, people are still drinking beer. >> national light, in fact, in some cases according to the evercore piece. >> did you read that >> i did >> and some were drinking mezcal. >> we may have a drink after today. we'll see you later. more on the market action. back in two minutes.

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good thursday morning. welcome to at hour of "squawk on the street." i'm carl quintanilla with leslie picker and mike santoli. david faber has the morning off,

and morgan brennan ison maternity leave. we got some relief in yields, got some relief in oil, but the vix is up a touch. >> certainly not a bright end to the quarter, end to the first half of the year, but we are only 30 minutes into the trading session. bitcoin dipping back below 20k, again on pace for its worst month ever you can see down more than 6% now, pfizer signing a $3.2 billion deal with the u.s. government for 150 million more doses of the covid-19 vaccine, and officially filing for full fda approval of its oral treatment paxlovid and restoration hardwareis

getting slam this morning. president biden speaking earlier last hour in madrid. that's where we find our kayla tausche this morning with highlights from his remarks. >> reporter: good morning, carl, president biden fielding questions on thinks preferred venue, the world stage despite swirls disagreements, he faced blistering questions on the u.s. economy, how long american voters should be forced to fay a premium at the pump for the war in ukraine he says he believes as long as it takes for ukraine to win the war, which he called a critical issue for the world. he was also asked if he feels the u.s. is headed in the wrong direction, which 85% of americans in recent polls say it is here's how president biden responded. >> inflation is higher in almost

every other country. we're better positioned to deal with this than anyone. >> reporter: within the scope of that answer, he said there's one area where he feels the united states is sliding backwards. he made news when he called for the senate to ease rules that would essentially remove the minority party's veto power, specifically to codify abortion rights here's where president biden said that. >> i believe we have to codify roe very wade in the law, and if the filibuster gets in the way, we provided an exception for this -- require an exception for the filibuster for this action to deal with it. >> that word "exception" will be important, one that democrats talked about as a carveout during the debate over voting right. he also said he would support a

carveout or exception for voting rights, but he also supports one for the right to privacy we'll see -- tomorrow he will be back on the ground at the white house, hosting governors from states that have themselves preserved a woman's right to abortion >> thank up, kayla. the broader markets are falling. the fed's preferred inflation measure rising from a year ago, hovering around levels not seen since the '80s it's the end of the quarter and first half of the year, with the s&p on the worst half since 1970 joining us is delano sapporo, and david bailen good morning to you both guys, david, clearly the market is in this defensive crouch, consumed with the likelihood of

a slowdown perhaps giving way to an outright recession. at the same time the fed seems a bit locked in to waiting for more relief before it can itself ease off what can an investor do with the back drop right now? >> what everyone is doing right now is refinishes their portfolios obviously that repositioning should be really in a defensive posture. it means getting into dividend equities, into different sectors of the market that are more defensively positioned as we go into the last six months of the year what i think will happen now is we're looking ahead six months you're already seeing consumer demand drop. you've seen it in retail what that portends is a decline in employment beginning probably six months from now, so we don't see a recession this year, but there's a possibility of one next year.

really what the fed has to make a determination of is whether or not just setting expectations where they are, raising rates, you know, tell graphs what they're going to do, that has been already been sufficient to really slow down the economic. that will reduce inflation over time, but it can reduce the cost of wheat or oil quickly. all they can do is bring down aggregate demand will the fed actually realize it's had a large portion of the impact that it wanted to have, just by making the announcements and following through on them. if it does, you can avoid a recession. if it continues and extends the fight against inflation, that could end up being a recessionary signal for 2023 >> given all of that, and the fact that stocks in general -- in fact the majority of them have done worse than the indexes, so there's an instink to think that maybe the bad news

is priced in, of at the same time it's treacherous to get too far away and anticipate before we actually live through what the fed is likely to do, and whether this recession comes to reality. how would you be operating right now? >> yeah, mike, you make a really good point if we're going to see a soft landing, which is very hard for the fed to achieve, but if we're moving closer to -- you know, i still think we're in a raising environment, now the focus should be on earnings, right earnings projections are still pretty rosy. and 9.3% in 2023, after we had a strong 2021. those forecasts haven't come down, all right? so investors can look at that as a potential next leg downward if we see the projections on eps, on revenue growth, for all

companies overall to start to go down, then investors will still want to stay very, very defensively positioned in your healthcare positions as well as the staples. if that eases, there's potential for a fourth quarter, which historically has been a decent quarter. to be stronger there, mike >> you can see the defense i was pot tur with utilities, the only s&p sector in the green today. david, you recently raised your forecast of a revery to 40% from 35%. that would indicate your base-case scenario is we wouldn't go into a recession that the fed can achieve a soft landing. based on that, are you advising clients to take more risk, or do you think at this point, still being defensive is the right way to go? >> our biggest have i to clients is said in three words -- bonds are back if you have a lot of cash in your account right now, the

first thing you want to be buying are bonds, the high-quality, high-credit bonds. you want to be buying municipals, et cetera. the reason is that if you've got cash sitting in the bank, you can be assured that that $1 sitting in the bank will be worth 90 cents between 18 and 24 months you'll probably make the income and see some appreciation. the ability for the fed to maintain its high levels of interest rates a year from now or year and a half from now is very low the total return from bonds i think will be very, very attractive, so the first things investors should do is buy high-quality bonds. >> delano, when you said we may be waiting for the next shoe to drop with earnings to come in, in aggregate they have held up would you be looking toward

those segments of the market where you have seen a lot of retrenchment, whether it's,s know, some of the consumer cyclicals or elsewhere or is it just not the moment for that >> i think it's twofold for investors with high cash positions. those are the areas, talking about the blue chip tech stocks or other areas i think you're going to do so a lot of consolidation, cease that are strong right now growth has deteriorating significantly, so if you believe in those companies coming back, investors should look into those areas, right the consumer discretionary, the high-growth tech stocks that have pulled back, but a lot of them do have earnings potential that will continue to grow, have earning right now, strong balance sheets, and the ability to allocate cash a bit better in

a time where you have to be very, very careful with what you do with your cash, borrowing has become more expensive, so investors should look in those areas, mike, and allocating cash cordingly. >> delano, david, thanks a lot for your time this morning >> thanks a lot. as we look at the road map for the rest of the hour, the biggest laggard for this quarter, it's disney why one analyst still loves the stock, though. a check on oil, the longest win streak for the commodity on record. finally yesterday bed past andb yond, now restoration hardware issuing warnings on the consumer we'll diusscs. a big show ahead don't go away.

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checking in on the consumer, shares of rh sliding today after the high-end furniture chain warned they expect demand to further soften and lower guidance for the year again. the ceo citing mortgage rates and the fed's aggressive tightening that move coming after weeks of softening demand warned. rh is not the only one wells fargo's charlie scharff telling people in aspend there could be more pain.

>> we actually said recently publicly or mortgage revenues will be down 50% from the first quarter to the second quarter. of which part of is price, but part of it is less applications. real estate values moderating in the long term are a good thing. >> for inflation >> i think absolutely for inflation, because it's part of it in terms of just increased rent payments, increased mortgage payments. it all filters through, but again, it would be messy going through it >> good to hear from scharf, who we don't hear from a lot clearly the mortgage business will be a big piece. >> a lot of it has to do with the fact that fewer people are going to be doing refinancing of their home we also, of course, have seen mortgage applications decline for first-time home buyers, for those looking to move as well.

he also said at the bernstein conference we'll le right-sizing shifts in the mortgage environment in particular, same is true with jpmorgan. we're seeing this across the street, really the overall pain from the higher interest rate environment. >> there are fewer mortgages outstanding now that pay to refinance than basically there have ever been, because of how fast the rates have gone up. so essentially almost nobody has an incentive to do that 689. >> right. we are getting breaking news this morning out of the supreme court on the epa brian sullivan has been reading through it hey, sully. >> an 89-page decision, 6-3, a big win arguably for the fossil fuel industry. the supreme court of the united states overturning an appeals court ruling that gave the epa power to effectively decide on its own what type of emissions

rules can be enforced federally. it's a bit of an obscure came, came from a 1970s law called a clean power plan, that was never enacted, but in a 6-3 decision, the supreme court overturned the decision, giving the epa more power. effectively this is a win for coal and for the fossil fuel industry what was decided, however, was not that the epa has no power, but effectively that the epa's power is limited in scope. that's what this was about i'm going to read you -- forgive me for reading it. here's what chief justice john roberts had said -- capping carbon dioxide at a level that will force a transition away from coal may be a sensible, quote, solution to the crisis, but a decision of touch

magnitude and consequence rests with congress itself or an agency acting pursuant to clear delegation from that representative body. so, in supreme court legal-ese, what they're saying is congress, nonan agency like the environmental protection agency, has the sole ability to dictate rules of this magnitude related to things like carbon emissions. so kind of a big knock on federal agency power, and carl, there's a lot of concern that with a decision like this, will this now go into other agencies? the s.e.c. the fcc? with the supreme court limiting the power and scope of a federal agency to dictate to states and private companies what they may do it's a big ruling, arguably going to be a disaster for people on the more climate activist side of this, but maybe not as far-reaching in scope as some had feared. either way, a big win arguably

for the fossil fuel industry related to emissions. >> most immediately certainly a victory on that front for the fossil fuel industry as you referred to there, people have been watching this case because of what it might mean for a general doctrine that says, look, the way the federal government operates with these agencies essentially interpreting laws fromcongress and enacting rules is, in itself, not legitimate, which would be just tremendous in terms of the way life and businesses are regulated. >> another line here which i think is key, guys, forgive me for reading it we declined to withhold the epa's claim of unheralded regulatory power over a significant portion of the american economy so there is the supreme court, led by chief justice john roberts, effectively saying the epa as power, but it does not

have unheralded regulatory power, their words, over a significant portion of the american economy this portion of the economy, guys, is related to their ability to clamp down and effectively force in some ways a switch from certain types of power generation, in this case coal, that's what this was brought forth from, and it goes -- by the way, this law is 1970 it was challenged in 1992, that trump had a different law. influence of these laws were actually put into place. they just kept being challenged in the course and working their way up to finally now the supreme court saying the epa as some power, but not, in nair guys, unheralded regulatory authority over a significant portion of the american economy. we'll have to see how this changes. congress can act if you're fridays traded by the decision, we get it. all it takes is congress to make

the law. the course is not saying there is no power to regulate things like emissions, the court is simply saying it needs to be done by congress, not an unelected official agency like the epa the not seeing a big pop in the stocks for oil and gas, but arguably a big win. >> what is congress's appetite, now that the supreme court has effectively kicked this potential regulatory theory back over to them, what is their appetite to tackle these emission problems? >> why do you always have to ask the hard questions, picker >> my job, brian >> i think their appetite will be large, leslie they're going to be frustrated by this decision the democratic majority will be angry about this andother rulings. they're already frustrated with the supreme court.

they'll going to be upset, and you're going to hear arguably talk about -- i'll bet you lunch i'm right, leslie, there will be a lot of conversations of saying here's another example of the court trying to harm the american economy or harm climate or harm population, and they're saying we will legislate this. so i think the appetite, to use your term, is going to be large. can they get something done with a joe manchin, almost no majority senate? i don't know this was west virginia versus the epa. senator manchin, who's been a thorn in the democrats' side despite become a democrat, is from west virginia if you're looking for senator joe manchin of west virginia to get mad about the decision that west virginia just won, we'll see what that appetite really is. >> it may not warrant a free lunch, not a big enough

appetite brian, we appreciate it. let's check on the place averaging today. definitely a clear screen of green. disney down 32% quarter to date. boeing down more than 30% as well we're back in two. hey businesses! you all deserve something epic! so we're giving every business, our best deals on every iphone - including the iphone 13 pro with 5g. that's the one with the amazing camera? yep! every business deserves it... like one's that re-opened! hi, we have an appointment. and every new business that just opened! like aromatherapy rugs! i'll take one in blue please! it's not complicated. at&t is giving new and existing business customers our best deals on every iphone. ♪ ♪

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my minions will save me. one winner in june -- chinese tech stocks. the etf, ticker kweb, green for the month. key gainers all have double digits for the month rebounding further off their lows for the year, all three of those names now just 50%, though the kwell is still down more than 50%. switch our focus to media names. worries about inflation, the direction of the economy hitting these platforms, disney is now

below its pre-disney plus launch share prices as a buy, a 174 target, talk about how we get there given some of the developing macro back drop. >> the business for disney today is really strong their theme parks have never been better, and they're still operating with one hand behind their back they don't yesterday have international backing in orlando. their cruise ships -- and asia park have been covid restrained. they launched 53 markets, i think, third quarter and they're ramping up new originals, and getting new audiences for things like obi-wan the market is telling us we're

heading into a terrible recession with the stock down 30% over the past three months, kind of twice the decline of the s&p 500, but we don't see that in the numbers right now i think arguably it's more than priced in at these levels. this has been one of the calling cards on the parks is that they are handicapped by the lack of international. clearly if it's a severe recession, and we know the fall doesn't look all that great for them, how much of visitation do you really expect to return? >> well, look, again we're not -- you can't say that you have 100% confidence in a recession. it may not happen. it may not be severe '08-'09, which was a terrible recession. they lost make over 20% 25% of operating profit if you saw that in this

environment, you do back to what they did in 2019, which was a great year before the pandemic that's because they're doing much better coming out of the pandemic so, again, i think arguably a lot is already discounted in the name. >> barton, you also cover snap you have it as a buyer thooismt launching a subscription product. i know the market likes subscriptions. it's predictable, so forth, but at this point isn't the consumer base saturated by these subscriptions? you say even disney is taking shares from netflix, how much more of this pie can grow? >> i think it's not material when they announced it, they kind of downplayed the impact on the business this is something that's for a particular audience that i don't think moves the needle snap remains an ad-driven story.

look at facebook, for instance, but at snap you have audience growth that's kind of i think a nice skew technologically and generationally that would make it a social media name, really the only pure social media name i would be interested in owning. they're looking to the side of this uncertainty not macro, for snap >> barton just another quick point on disney. you know, for a while when everyone was very excited about the streaming business, you know, it was easy to observe the market was giving disney credit for already having a netflix inside of it now netflix itself has kind of a market multiple at best, seen maybe post-growth, still profitless prosperity, because they still have to spend on

content. what goents people excited as they levels? >> i think they'll be growing earnings, saul earnings growth over the next several years, if you discount that back to today at a reasonable multiple, not terribly different from where we are trading today, the stock is worth owning you knee, that's what i think over the long term will drive it clearly there could be a gyration, if there's a macro reset, that then we recover from for a company like disney, it's earnings now, netflix-style multiples of subscribers are not the way to look at it i think on that metric, i think disney will stand up pretty well. >> obviously a difficult first half of the year back to 93 and change barton, good to see you. appreciate it. barton crockett joins us from

rosenblatt. not every day the top three laggards are in the same industry a lot of discussion this week about their leverage even with oil back to 106, we'll get more on today's market action after the break stay with us ♪ ♪ wow, we're crunching tons of polygons here! what's going on? where's regina? hi, i'm ladonna. i invest in invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to the nasdaq-100 innovations, like real time cgi. okay... yeah... oh. don't worry i got it! become an agent of innovation with invesco qqq

cnbc is out with new results from the deliver alpha quarterly stock report 40% of respondents say the index will finish the year above 4k, but 13% believe we'll go even lower. hey, bob. >> we have 250 points to get to 4k i just cant to point out these declines happened overnight, mostly in europe i want to show you europe, it's down overnight, 3:00 in the

morning u.s. time. germany was down france was down. remember, the ecb policymakers have been meeting in portugal. their speeches have been fighting inflation, no matter the cost so if you look at sectors, carl was mentioning the travel stocks tech is down banking and energy -- oil is at 106 now, so there's concerns about recession. that's the demand destruction you are seeing a bunch of new lows that -- so a lot of the big banks will be reporting in a couple weeks amex also, a 52-week low. some of the big global industrials, the general electrics of the world, 3m, honeywell also at 52-week lows, deere, for example, a 52-week low as well. rear down right now 21% for the first six months of the over

last night we were talking about it was the worst since 1970. if you include today, we're the worst since 1962 so the question is, is it really that bad yes, it's a lousy start. i want to just point out, put it in perspective, there have been 13 periods since 1957 when the s&p was invented, whether the s&p has fallen 20% or more over 6 months that's about once every five years. this is not that uncommon. i want to make it clear. so if you look at some of the worst periods since 1957, 2009, 2008, we had a period in 2009 when it was down 42% for the period ending february 28. these periods were much, much worse, 13 of them, as i mentioned, seven of the eight worse month drops have occurred in the last 20 years, so you see this mostly around the great

financial crisis when we had really bad returns, yet since 2002 when we've had the lousy returns, the s&p is up 270%. so the point is that it does rebound. trying to get some perspective here byrne, around covid, the worst six-month period was around, ended by march of 2020 so i think the key story here, guys is we want to -- mike, we want to keep the decline factually correct, down 21%, it was a lousy start to the year, but some perspective, this has happened before, and we did bounce back. guys, back to you. >> u.s. to pick up on that point, we have this quirk in this current period, where the all-time peak was january 3rd. it just so happened that the top compared with the first of the year so we're comparing this worst six months the market was already going down for more than a year when

1970 started the so it's not to say this isn't a bad period usually you don't get since months of weakness without recession risk, but it's worth keeping in mind it's a calendar quirk we're in this exact situation. bonds, too, have suffered this year. is i wasn't born in 1962, but i wonder if these historical backdrops have also suffered assets and what that portends for the second half 6 the year in terms of overall market psychology with everybody, regardless of basically how you position, with the exception of commodities and probably energy. >> late '60s, and parts of the '70s were a similar track where there was not great diversification from bonds you've lost both sides, and it just reduces everybody's risk budget when you're -- well, until recently, losing money on the treasuries

we'll see if that continues. >> metals, energy, some grains, whole sea gas is down 7% below the 50-day, i think since december as we're looking for some signs of relief in retail, gas may be a few weeks away. >> the issue is the fed needs the numbers to cooperate in terms of the official inflation releases before we can see clear to having easing of their tightening campaign. that's the fix we're in. despite a major jump in the is it supply of homes, prices are still sky high diana olick has more. >> hi, mike. active listing for homes rose at the fastest rate in june inventory up close to 19% and new listings finally surpass typical pre-covid levels from a year ago markets seeing the biggest gains

in supplies are some of the once hottest pandemic plays, austin inventory up, phoenix up 113%, and raleigh up close to 100% miami down 16%, haul down 13%, and virginia beach down 14%. don't get too excited all this new supply is helping with prices, the median price hit another record high in june. the annual gains are moderating slightly, but still up almost 17%. part of that is because the share of larger, more expensive homes is rising, skewing the numbers slightly higher. affordable in the second quarter dropped in 97% of the nation, according to a new report from adam that's up 69% from the quarter the year before. also the highest reading just

before the highest before the crash -- that's th -- also the biggest jump in 22 years. lenders generally see 28% as the ceiling for lending, and that's why some potential home buyers today are just not longer qualifying for a mortgage. back to you guys. >> that's probably why rh is experiencing so much pain. if you are able to afford a house, perhaps you'll live in an empty one for a little bit diana, thank you. inflation not seen since the early 1980s. our next guest says despite current pressures, inflationary pressures will stabilize over time mission produce the largest supplier of avocados, join us

now. steve barnard, define over time for us >> well, the avocado consumption has grown from about two pounds per capita here in the united states, that was back in the year about 200 on. we've done a couple different things with more access with the border opening up to provide a year-around haas avocado, which was a higher quality than some of the green skins we had prior to that, so a better product then when we started ripening back in the early 2000s, providing a ripe product at retail, consumption was tripling over the years it hasn't really slowed down the growth continues with avocado toast and a lot of things coming online that is new

to us, it's all working. >> i was going to say the brunch scene was definitely a tailwind in your favor. in your recent earnings report, you said the average sell price while volume declined by 19% obviously that led to a much higher top line, but your bottom line was squeezed as a result. is the bottom driven more by demand are the higher prices this watering some of that, keeping some on the sidelines? or is it a supply issue that you just really can't fulfill the demand that's out there? >> that's exactly right. the consumption has been growing on average 10% here in the u.s., but not only here, but in asia and europe we continue to expand our footprint. the growth has been about 10% a year on average, and the mexican

crop was a little lower. avocados are variants, if you have a big crop one year, chances are a lower crop the next year, because they don't produce the same all the time. they're pretty fickle. we like to have two supplies at any one time we expanded with vertical with -- so we try to guarantee the product to consumer, but even with that, they're all still alternate bearing, and with the growth at 10% a year, it's hard to keep up it takes an avocado, to take about four years with relative production after you plant it. it peaks in about year 7 it takes time. we have a lot of projects to help offset some of the demand

issues, but as an industry we're moving about 55 million pounds a week when he started in this ripe program, i think we were in the low 20s, 20 million pounds per week consumption here in the u.s. i think you'll continue to see substantial growth this coming season when we have a bigger crop out of the mexico, particularly. >> that's remarkable it's a real comment on how american tastes have changed over the years,ings whether it's chipotle or marketing, avocados are definitely part of the culture. transportation costs, can you put '22 in perspective versus '21. >> whatever it is, it just doubled. we do a lo the of ocean freight because we bring in product from peru and other countries those have doubled the fuel prices here, $7 a

gallon i saw for diesel the other day. obviously fuel and labor are the two biggest inflation factors. our boxes and packaging is going up too, obviously, but it's out there. we try to adjust as fast as possible, which isn't real easy. >> steve, you mentioned that you're involved more in vertical integration. i'm curious how much of the price increases are passing on to your consumers, on to the customers? how much do you have to eat yourself no pun intended. >> well, i eat my share, but yeah, it takes time to get to the -- you can't just jump into it instantly with our customers. we have to gradually work into it since we grow a lot of our own product in peru, we have contracts for a fixed price for

a season, which could be 12 to 18 weeks that gives us a bit of an advantage in the marketplace, where a lot of our competitors don't have that option yeah, it's lagging in a load of cases, but we try to get there as fast as we can without appearing to be gouging, but the fuel rates -- on ocean freight, they have doubled. not only that, just this week, we have a ship 245z delayed a beak for some reason i'm not sure what happened, but -- you know, you run into those challenges of trying to get on time with the freshest product you can get. but we're working through it we have other optioning, and we're just trying to, again, have multiple options and sources going forward so we can minimize the risk.

>> certainly eye opening when you see is the average selling prize gains over the last year, but obviously there's a lot of pinpoints that lead up to that we appreciate you breaking it all down thank you, steve. >> thank you. we have a big show ahead on "techcheck" in a few moments we're going to chick in with bumble's whitney wolfe herd, and speaking to the ceo of digital realty, about why he's still bullish on the business. that's in about 12 minutes don't go away. perfectly located. an inspiration. and enough space to start an empire. loopnet. the most popular place to find a space. new projects means new project managers. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. when you sponsor a job, you immediately get your shortlist of quality candidates, whose resumes on indeed match your job criteria.

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for kids like us, and all the amazing things we're gonna learn. through projectup, comcast is committing $1 billion so millions more students can continue to get the tools they need to build a future of unlimited possibilities. welcome back a 300 acre plot of prime north dakota farm land has become a flash point for unlikely espionage saga we have deep dive on that story. >> reporter: this is grand forks

air force base in north dakota this property sits just about 20 minutes down the road. more than 300 acres of prime farm land. earlier this year, three north dakotans who owned parcels here sold this land for millions of dollars to a subsidiary of a chinese company that wants to build a corn milling plant now the transaction has come under scrutiny here in washington, d.c. where some in the intelligence community warn that the deal should be blocked because it could offer chinese spies unprecedented access to the american base. it's an only in america kind of fight pitting the property and economic rights of a community against national security warnings from high ranking officials in nation's capital. the chinese company at the heart of the controversy is the fufeng group. the company is not a threat. >> we're under u.s. laws i'm an american citizen. i grew up my whole life here i'm not going be doing any type of espionage activities or do

business with any company that would. >> the mayor says he just wants to do business >> the fbi didn't say there was any immediate concerns they said if you see something, say something. >> reporter: the air force hasn't taken any official position on the chinese investment an air force major composed an alarming memo laying out what he believes to be the intelligence threat some of the most sensitive elements exist with the digital up links and down links inherent with unmanned air system and their interaction with space based assets the air force says major jeremy fox was only speaking for himself but he's not the only one with security concerns in a report released may 26th, the u.s.-china economic review commission wrote the location of the land close to base is

particularly convenient for monitoring air traffic flows in and out of the base among other security related concerns. that's why senator kevin kramer opposes the project in his own state despite the economic benefits it might bring. >> i think we grossly underappreciate how effective they are at collecting information, collecting data, using it in nefarious ways i just assume not have the chinese company's party doing business in my backyard. >> reporter: the chairman and ranking member of the senate intelligence committee told cnbc they have concerns about the chinese development. >> now the city won't build out infrastructure until next spring the mayor says he's moving ahead with the project in good faith but is still waiting to hear if the federal government has any official objection back over the you. >> i'm curious, is this under review as an acquisition of an asset and in which case do they expect to hear some sort of

ra rational for agreeing to or rejecting any project. >> we don't know a lot of people did tell me they are waiting to see if they might weigh in here and in what direction it will weigh in part of the issue is the air force hasn't said anything about this project there's this report from the one major the officially, the air force hasn't taken any position on whether this is good idea or bad idea >> ifascinating. bitcoin on pace for its worst month in over year how should you play the vo vola volatility kick off your weekend by tuning into crypto ghnit in america we talk to sam bankman-fried that's tomorrow night. stay with us

not a great end to the quarter or the first half of year with stocks showing their worst returns.

there's some interesting calendar aspects that you're talk about with regard to when we saw recent highs and just the downward spiral from there >> yeah, january 3rd, we kind of came into the year on a high note we peaked right then the half year numbers are pretty lous lousy. when you look back to prior years there was some kind of comeback it didn't mean the low was at june 30th. there has been some come back. the issue is how far are we into the entire process of trying to reckon with a fed tightening circle we are going to have europe close pretty soon. bonds are rallying the two year note yield has declined to below 2% clearly the market is saying the fed may not be able to get to its objective. we see economic weakness as

something that might interrupt the plans. in 2023, they are forecasting the collective wisdom of the bond market is forecasting it will be some rate cuts to come the two year note yield dipping back below 3%. not that long ago. tells you that that is, for the moment, the message. that's going to do it now for "sid "squawk on the street. "tech check" starts now. good thursday morning. welcome to "tech check." nasdaq down more than 2% in morning. one of those companies will join us as consumer confidence falls and ad spend slow, we'll sit down with the ceo of bumble that stock out performing the s&p to start the year. the first half comes to close today. s&p is on pace for the worst start since 1970 nasd s